Is Marai the FC future that never comes?

With Toyota rolling out its production Mirai fuel cell car this year — the name is Japanese for 'Future' — are we seeing the real start to a long promised 'car of the future' finally arriving?, writes Brian Byrne.

Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe it's still a 'sometime' thing. The truth is, part of the reason for the Mirai's rollout is auto-political. It will initially only be available in California, which has 'zero tailpipe emissions' legislation that penalises any carmaker who doesn't have at least one model available with no emissions. Toyota hasn't gone the pure EV route, so this is its 'zero' candidate. That it costs some $30,000 more than an equivalent gasoline powered sedan doesn't really matter.

But the Mirai's arrival is a pointer to the ongoing search for a real alternative to petrol or diesel as the energy source for our car travelling. And prompts me to look again at the situation in Ireland.

First, we're unlikely to see fuel cell cars driving around here regularly for some time, certainly not in the remainder of my lifetime, I'd hazard. Apart from the high fuel economy performances of our current fossil fuel vehicles, there'll have to be a major shift in setting up a very expensive hydrogen fuel infrastructure. Given the size of our market, that's just not going to happen as long as the vast majority of our vehicles use the traditional fuels. Apart from the delivery systems, producing hydrogen requires a significant amount of energy itself, while reforming methane to make it releases its own greenhouse gases.

But where are we with electric cars as we transit into the second half of the second decade of the 21st century? Actually, motoring on if you compare the sales figures for recent years. But not likely to change the game either for quite some time.

I have, since 2010, heard introductory sales claims of '1,000 electric vehicles in the next year' from both Nissan and Renault bosses in Ireland. Those linked companies do deserve the mark for mass-market introduction of EVs. But the predictions were over-enthusiastic, to say the least.

In 2011, 46 electric cars were registered here. In 2012 that increased to 138, and dropped back the following year to 46 as the spark went out of the market.

But in 2014, some 214 electric passenger cars were registered. And for the first time, most of these were probably private buyers rather than the corporates which had invested in those early figures. And already this year, with January not even complete as I write, there have been 51 registrations.

Sure, with a total of 514 registered electric cars here since 2010, not a massive roll out yet, but in those figures are two interesting elements. First, the 2014 electric car registrations represent 0.2pc of the market, doubling the share of 2011. Second, the Nissan Leaf entered the Top 100 models in Ireland last year also. With 188 units, it sold more than, for instance, VW's Beetle, Ford's B-MAX, and Citroen's C3. There's food for thought there indeed.

The overall electric car profile here has changed too. The Leaf is without doubt the leader, by a substantial figure. Partly because it was first, partly too because it has become more affordable. And there's enough user evidence out there to show that, for the owner with the right kind of motoring need, it works.

But we also have Renault's new Zoe, the supermini to the Nissan's compact. We have yet to see how that will go. Then there's the BMW i3, stylistically innovative though expensive, but then it IS a BMW. Recently whispered out has been the EV version of VW's biggest breadwinner, the Golf. And long promised, the electric Focus should be on Irish price lists soon.

However, those latter might suffer a similar fate to Renault's Fluence, in that they are modified versions of current traditional fuel cars, and generally there are compromises to be made. My own view is that dedicated model EVs have a much better chance, because they're being bought by people who actually want an electric car, and are happy to be seen in one.

The bugbear, apart from extra cost, remains range. Realistically in most driving situations, 120km/h seems the average. More sometimes, less sometimes, especially depending on whether ancillary systems such as climate control are needed.

Recharging isn't really a big issue, apart from the time it takes. Home charging can be a few hours with the right unit, while there are more high-voltage charge facilities available in public places, especially motorway service areas. But until there's a comfortable ability to drive from, say, Dublin to Cork, with power to spare, there will always be anxiety.

The good news is that strong research is ongoing in improving the efficiency of batteries for automobile applications. There's a lot of promising study out there, and already we're seeing smaller battery packs with higher ranges. This is likely to improve rapidly in a relatively few years.

Meantime, though they're an expensive option against standard diesel and petrol power, plug-in hybrids are what will likely bridge the gap between pure EVs and fossil fuel vehicles for some years to come. Perfect for those who do a lot of urban driving, with a certain amount of long-distance work needed, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (above) is the current best example here.

The Mirai is likely to remain a future mirage in real terms for some time to come. Especially this year — only 700 will be built for global sales in 2015.