An analysis of recent registration figures shows that the new dual registration system has achieved its primary goal of spreading sales out through the year.
Now though, there is a clear and distinct new pattern emerging to new car registrations. January, February and March are still strong months for sales, and there is a drop off from April through to June, but that was followed this year by a dramatic jump back up in July, with 16,000 new cars registered – a number that actually exceeded the totals for February and March.
Last year, after July, things quietened down considerably, and that pattern looks set to be repeated this year. In 2013, new car sales in December actually hit a low of just 211 units registered, lower even than the same month in 2008 when we were all facing into the storm front of recession.
The good news, both for the industry and the economy, is that sales are truly booming – 83,000 new cars have been sold already this year, almost 10,000 units ahead of the full year for last year. That means we should see a year-end total of around 93,000 new car sales for this year, meaning an improvement in jobs and employment in the motor industry (which employs around 35,000 people) and a commensurate increase in the tax take from vehicle sales for the exchequer.
What it also means is potential bad news for the new car buyer though. Clearly, in a more buoyant market, dealers and importers are more reluctant to offer the sort of ‘fire sale’ deals that were common during the harsh years of 2008-2012.
Still, the best time to hit a dealer forecourt is towards the end of June or December. With sales at a low ebb, dealers and importers alike will be pressed hard to hit their monthly targets, and with anticipation of a new registration plate just around the corner, you’ll be able to drive a harder bargain, especially if you can find what you want in the dealer’s existing stock. As long as you’re keeping the car for more than a couple of years, the extra small hit of depreciation will average out somewhat.
There are also still a few good ‘dealer demo’ or ‘delivery mileage’ cars to be had at month’s end. Snap them up as the bargains they are.
